Climate Change - How Much?

Hotter

Average global temperature has increased about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit compared with what it would be without people. Why does this apparently small change matter?

Warmer oceans drive more hurricanes and more fierce hurricanes.
Expands the oceans - sea level rise
Melts polar ice, glaciers - sea level rise
Moves all living things northwards
Temperature changes become more extreme
More air conditioning, more intolerable hot regions

Why should we believe that?

Satellite sensing has revolutionized the accuracy and extent of the measurement of global changes
Measuring sea level, average surface temperature, desertification, ice area, glacial retreat, deforestation, ...
There is more data, more accurate data, more convincing data consistent with models.
Loss of ice the most obvious

Secondary Nasty Effects - Disasters

Severe Fires - 2020 Western US, Australia
Hurricanes & Typhoons - Lots 2020
Floods - 2020 many worldwide - Once in a generation is now every few years.
Droughts - many 2020 - the slow disasters
Reef deaths

Modeling - Verifying and Predicting Climate Change

Climate change is a complex issue with complex modeling.
The most important (but not only) aspect of climate change is global warming caused by CO2 increases.
CO2 atmospheric concentrations over the last few hundred years current levels are far above historic levels
CO2 has increased in lockstep with the expansion of the use of fossil fuels.

So far it seems to be correct
Big question - is global warming unstable? Could it accelerate for some reasion?
Hard to predict - see How Fast

Email: thought@thoughtventions.com

Last updated: September 2020